So, what’s the catch? According to Gartner’s hype-cycle Cloud Computing is at the peak of its inlated expectations and will take 2 to 5 years to become mainstream after plummeting through a trough of disillusionment. I would agree with them that the technology has significant potential issues, but the presentations of what has been achieved at Gigaspaces’ Cloud Crowd event were significant. There are significant potential issues in adopting the technology, and so strong architectural and project governance will be required but there are solutions to many of the potential issues.

As an example, in many applications the safety of committed data must be paramount. Losing a few transactions because of unforeseen events is just not acceptable. A solution to this is to write to a database, or use a connector to another application out of the cloud. This can, however, decrease performance and increase development complexity. To help in this area NT/e have added to the technology pile a system called CloudTran. The solution provides a database connection mechanism with simplified development and a potential for performance that is much closer to that of the rest of the cloud software. The result should be an acceptable level of data safety without removing the benefits derived from the massive scalability.

Thus, if you have a project that needs this sort of capability then Cloud Computing may be worth consideration. Its potential is significant, but treat it as a leading edge technology. Use strong architectural governance, proof of concepts and consultancy from the supplier to ensure that everything is being used effectively. The result, however, might well be a system with strong capability 2 to 5 years ahead of its time.

What Garner have done it to convert this trend into a pseudo-scientific analysis method, and then to look at various technology areas in this light. The result is a set of reports that looks at areas of technology and state where on the curve the various technologies are, and predict how long it will take before the technology gains mainstream adoption. The reports make for interesting reading, but should people use Gartner’s opinion within them in order to develop their strategy. To say the least the idea of the hype-cycle has its negative side, as illustrated by this article.

The challenge is that the hype cycle is basically a Gartner opinion about the future, and any opinion about the future is likely to be wrong. This needs to be borne in mind if you are planning to develop a strategy based on the hype-cycle. So what could this hype-cycle be used for? My own though is that it is reasonable to use it to consider which technologies are most likely to be of use to you in the future. That is, to prioritise the application of you own analysis.

The reports contain a summary of each technology, and this can be used to consider whether it would be applicable to you if worked fully.  The position in the hype-cycle and the length of time Gartner predicts to full acceptance, however, should be considered in the light of the potential benefit of the technology to you. To make a decision, if the technology has sufficient potential value then it is worth trying to build a serious case for whether it is worth being on the bleeding edge of this one. In doing so, however, be aware that working on the bleeding edge has its own management challenges that need to be considered and mitigated.