What Garner have done it to convert this trend into a pseudo-scientific analysis method, and then to look at various technology areas in this light. The result is a set of reports that looks at areas of technology and state where on the curve the various technologies are, and predict how long it will take before the technology gains mainstream adoption. The reports make for interesting reading, but should people use Gartner’s opinion within them in order to develop their strategy. To say the least the idea of the hype-cycle has its negative side, as illustrated by this article.

The challenge is that the hype cycle is basically a Gartner opinion about the future, and any opinion about the future is likely to be wrong. This needs to be borne in mind if you are planning to develop a strategy based on the hype-cycle. So what could this hype-cycle be used for? My own though is that it is reasonable to use it to consider which technologies are most likely to be of use to you in the future. That is, to prioritise the application of you own analysis.

The reports contain a summary of each technology, and this can be used to consider whether it would be applicable to you if worked fully.  The position in the hype-cycle and the length of time Gartner predicts to full acceptance, however, should be considered in the light of the potential benefit of the technology to you. To make a decision, if the technology has sufficient potential value then it is worth trying to build a serious case for whether it is worth being on the bleeding edge of this one. In doing so, however, be aware that working on the bleeding edge has its own management challenges that need to be considered and mitigated.

I am usually nervous of talking to sales people because of the need to resist the pressure of sales people to buy their latest product portfolio. To say the least I was impressed by Compuware’s response – they didn’t try to sell me one of their tools at all. They listened to the situation and provided me with an introduction to another organisation that could solve the issue effectively. Interestingly, this will make it much more likely that I will contact them in the future – and so in a way the sales tactic may be effective in the long term.

I recount this partly because I was impressed with their attitude, and partly because I have been in a similar situation on the other side of the fence a few times of late. In potential sales situations it has been quite clear that the client does not need my services. I have decided that the best thing to do in this case is to offer the best advice I can, and provide an introduction to someone who can help them more effectively is that is relevant. If not, I will usually try to provide resources that that can help them from the internet. This is partly trying to do the best job I can, but it I also a form of enlightened self interest. Another time when they contact me then it may be in a situation where they do need my services.

If you need advice, therefore, please feel free to contact me at dh@sarquol.com, or call on +44 7887 536083. I won’t promise to provide hours of free consultancy, but neither will I be trying to sell you a service you don’t need.